New Series: Blogging My Real-Time Swing Trades
Alright, I’m going to try something new here. In addition to the regular weekend updates with market commentary and long-term trend following ideas, I’m also going to start sharing some of my real-time swing trades.
After all, I’ve already talked about dip-buying quite a bit. So now I thought it’d be fun to share some of my real-time live trades for a shorter-term swing trading system I’m fine-tuning. The idea, is to catch quicker moves in stocks that are showing immediate momentum.
Cool, right? So let me tell you a bit more about how it works and how you can hopefully learn from these ideas too! Then I’ll show you the idea I’m putting into practice today.
And just to be clear: Most of my trading is still using a long-term trend following system that spits out the majority of the ideas I share each weekend. As always, this isn’t advice, just my personal opinions and experience you may find educational.
In this case, while the initial results are promising, I’m still working out some details. But let me show you what I’ve got. And then I’ll get to today’s specific trade idea! I’ll try to post 1-2 per week depending on what the market has on offer.
How Does This Work: Short-Term Swing Trading System
The idea with theses swing trades is to catch smaller moves. While I’m still focused on stocks near 52-week highs, It’s a bit different from longer-term trend following, for example:
- I’ll be trading off daily charts, not weekly charts,
- I’ll be putting a bit more emphasis on recent earnings results,
- Technicals will play a larger part in my approach,
- I’ll use price targets to some extent, rather than a simple trailing stop,
- The trade frequency will be much higher and will require a bit more active management.
Since I’m still fine-tuning this system, I don’t want to get too much more specific than that right now. Besides, it’s easier to explain by showing you what I’m doing.
So this morning, I picked up shares of HubSpot (HUBS). Let me show you why, and how I’m planning to trade it.
New HUBS Swing Trade:
Now before I tell you about this trade, I just want to remind you the market is still in a bit of a no-mans land. After starting the week higher, SPY is still stuck between a bunch of short-term moving averages:
On the other hand, it is above the longer-term 200-day MA so I’m willing to keep placing some bets here. I’ll just keep position sizes smaller than usual, at around 0.5% of my account as a standard unit of risk (R).
Keep in mind, this mixed short term price action just means breakouts and follow-through are more likely to fizzle and fail. So I’m erring a little bit more on the cautious side with the smaller number of shares and trying to keep my expectations in check after picking up HUB stock this morning.
But here’s how I’ve planned the trade:
I somehow got a terrible fill this morning when I placed my buy order. But I’m playing for a quick move up towards $200, so hopefully this unfortunate entry won’t matter.
As a point of interest, if I was trading this on my long-term breakout system, my stop would be down around $160. So these is some more shakeout risk here. If that does happen, I don’t want to stick around. but with the stock price not yet overbought I’m hoping HUBS can keep running.
Now since this is a new series, I’m not sure if I’ll necessarily post a real-time exit. If I do sell I’ll try to mention it in my regular weekend post, but I’m keeping commitments light since this is something new.