March 2019: Changing Market Trends?
Since the trading week started off on such a strong note today, I just wanted to share some quick FinViz data. Because I think by looking at new highs and lows across different time frames, you can start to get a sense for how momentum is flowing.
Plus, it’s easy to do yourself in the future anytime you want. So first…
I hopped over to the FinViz stock screener and on the descriptive tab you can limit your screening results to stocks or ETFs. I went with the former.
This gives you a universe of 5,087 US-listed stocks (AMEX, NYSE and NASDAQ I believe)
So where do we go from there? Good question.
First, I wanted to see how things are doing on a longer-term basis. With a flat 200-day moving average on SPY, the results are pretty much what you expect:
- 2,107 stocks above their 200-day moving average
- 2,965 stocks below their 200-day moving average (that’s 58% if you were curious)
So from that common longer-term trading benchmark, the market trend is kind of a mixed-bag, with a slight edge to the bears.
No surprises here. But now let’s look at the 50-day MA:
- 3,494 (69%) stocks above their 50-day MA
- 1,578 (31%) stocks below their 50-day MA
Interesting, right? On this timeframe you can tell bulls have really been surging forward. And it kind of makes sense if you think about it.
We’ve rallied quite a bit year-to-date and many stocks were stretched well below their 50-day MA during the end of year correction.
Finally, let’s look at the shorter-term 20-day MA:
- 2,388 (47%) stocks above their 20-day MA
- 2,684 (53%) stocks below their 20-day MA
Again, maybe not what you’d expect. But it what makes sense: I imagine a lot of these stocks were previously stretched and have now fallen below their 20-day moving average, but still have some medium-term momentum.
Now let’s look at the daily chart of the SPY ETF with the respective moving averages layered in.
And you can see this large-cap group is doing pretty well.
On the other hand it looks like small caps (as shown by IWM) have some catching-up to do. If they can’t keep moving back up towards $160, I’d start to get more concerned.
Of course this is by no means an exhaustive market analysis by any stretch. But looking at trend-strength over different timeframes is an interesting lens through which to view recent price action. And I’ll be watching closely to see if that mid-term trend can keep moving.