Trend Following Trade Ideas for April 2017 (Part 3)

Happy Easter! I trust you and your family are having a great holiday long-weekend.

And as always…

I hope I can make it even better for you with some new trend following trade ideas to get you ready for next week’s trading. This week, I’m also going to spend some more time looking at some

That’s because unfortunately for stock market bulls, the major market averages haven’t been making much ground.

Just check out the weekly chart of the SPY ETF below:

Trend Following Trade Ideas April SPY

As you can see above, while the year started off with a bang, it has since fizzled a little bit. In fact, the S&P-500 closed below it’s 50-day moving average for the first time in months.

Of course, we’re still in a major long-term uptrend. But this recent fade reduces the number of immediate breakout stock picks showing up on my stock screens.

Don’t worry though, there are still some interesting areas of the market that are worth worth paying attention to.

Let me show you what I mean.

Market Sector Trend Analysis for April 2017

As the second quarter of 2017 begins to unfold, there are some trends that I think are worth paying attention to. Because to my eye, it looks like a defensive posture might be rewarded.

While I usually focus exclusively on stock picks in these weekly trade ideas, today I want to take a step back.

The reason for this is because it’s important to be aware of the market environment as a whole.

It’s like checking the weather forecast before you go on a trip. It pays to be prepared!

For instance, one development that caught my eye this week was the strength of bonds, as depicted by TLT.

Trend Following Trade Ideas April TLT

You can see this long-dated treasury proxy sold-off following the election of Trump. And at the same time, the stock market surged. However…

Since then, things have stabilized and by the close of last week it looks like bonds are trying to confirm a bottom.

So while the death of the secular bond-bull market has been much touted since last summer, it might be premature to call for the end.

After all, when you zoom out to a multi-year view, you can see the major uptrend (while volatile), is alive and well.

Trend Following Trade Ideas April TLT

Now I can’t predict what bond inflows will mean for equity investors… but… this potential flight to safety is something that doesn’t hurt to be aware of.

Along the same lines…

Gold was also a strong performer this week. While the yellow metal is still far from out of the woods, it looks like the prior downtrend has at least been put on pause.

Take a look:

Trend Following Trade Ideas April GLD

And although it can be tempting to jump in at this point, I prefer to wait for the higher high and for a new uptrend to be confirmed.

I know this might make you feel like you’re late to the party. But if you zoom out again and look at the bigger-picture view, you can see these moves can last for years on end.

Trend Following Trade Ideas April GLD long term

And those long-term moves are the kind of trends I LOVE to ride. Ultimately though, your personal investing style is up to you.


I did want to show you how I use multiple time frames to watch for how potential trade opportunities. Particularly, with how the shorter-term moves align with longer-term trends.

Finally, the last thing I want to show you before moving on to individual stock ideas, is to see some of the best-performing market sectors.

And continuing on our defensive theme, utilities, REITs and consumer staples are looking strongest. XLP in particular is hovering near all-time highs.

Trend Following Trade Ideas April XLP

On the other hand, the rotation out of financials and industrials continued.

So with that backdrop in mind, let’s look at some individual stock ideas.

Trend Following Trade Ideas for April 2017 (Part 3):

While there aren’t a ton of stocks ending the week on a high note, there are definitely lots of set-ups to be aware of. So here’s what’s catching my eye…

One of the first stocks on my radar is IDA.  As the company has continued to grow revenue and book value consistently, shares of IDA have followed suit:

Trend Following Trade Ideas April 2017 Part 3 IDA

I’m encouraged how IDA was able to close near the highs of the week, despite the index closing in the red. I also like to buy stocks that are coming out of consolidation patterns, which as you can see above is the case here.

Another stock that I have on watch is MON. This agro-chemical behemoth has been stair-stepping higher for most of 2017, and it seems to be digesting recent gains quickly:

Trend Following Trade Ideas April 2017 Part 3 MON

In these cases, I like to put a limit buy order above the recent highs, and let momentum take me into my position if MON can continue to push higher.

MTZ is another new name that’s grabbed my attention this week. Here’s the chart:

Trend Following Trade Ideas April 2017 Part 3 MTZ

Not only is MTZ making a new all-time high. But shares have been flagging for a few months now and I think it’s a reasonable bet that the next leg higher could be getting going.

Next up is PNW, which is another similar set-up to MTZ. But in addition to the new highs, shares of PNW also pay a healthy dividend (3% yield at current prices).

Trend Following Trade Ideas April 2017 Part 3 PWN

I’m happy to take these kind of trades all day long, optimistic that shares will continue to grind up. On the other hand, if the stock does reverse and stop me out I can be pretty confident the uptrend is over and have little trouble moving on.


The last idea I want to share with you is OOMA. This utility company is a relatively recent IPO. And despite the lack of profitable operating history, the chart looks very appealing:

Trend Following Trade Ideas April 2017 Part 3 OOMA

The strong breakout and above average buy-volume certainly have my attention. And this kind of trade is also easy to manage, as long as you have a clear plan for when to sell your stocks.

In terms of other ideas, long-time favourite SHOP keeps trending in the right direction. And shares of DIS continue to gain ground as well. So…

Overall, despite the sluggish close on the S&P-500, there are still some breakout stock ideas that are working well for bulls. And of course, if you want to learn how to find ideas like this for yourself, just keep reading!

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