Trend Following Trade Ideas For September 2019 (Part 5):
I always thought the bears went into hibernation as the days got shorter. But it looks like sellers have the short-term initiative into the end of September.
So in this weekend’s market update, let’s dig a little deeper and take a look at which way the prevailing trends are moving.
Plus, I’ll share some of my favourite trading links from this week and a few stock charts that may be of interest.
September 2019 Final Stock Market Update:
SPY continues to trade slightly lower. But from the weekly chart view, this volatile pullback has yet to make a lower low.
From the chart above you can see while SPY is below all-time highs just above $300, but at the surface this appears to be a reasonably orderly pullback. You might argue given all of the headline news – like talk of delisting BABA – this is actually a calm market!
When you zoom into the daily timeframe, you can see that while we did close down on Friday, at least it wasn’t at the absolute lows of the week.
But there might be a case SPY could continue to find support. The daily chart above is from TrendSpider.com. One of the features they have is an automated support and resistance tool that shows potential zones of interest.
As you can clearly see, their analysis implies dip-buyers may try to make a stand if prices drift lower next week.
On the other hand…
Small caps were looking great this summer but have since given up their gains. On the weekly chart below you can see IWM falling back into it’s channel:
It would have been nice to see a breakout in this segment of the market. But unfortunately bulls have to hope things don’t deteriorate further.
Outside the US, emerging markets have a similar look and feel, trading in something of a descending channel on their weekly chart:
I guess the good news is we aren’t looking at a steep washout. But this price action isn’t exactly enthusiastic either.
Further, bonds continue to hang in there pretty well. And all things considered, gold is also consolidating (albeit in a volatile manner). All of this paints a bit of a mixed picture.
The good news is, pullbacks can provide appealing entry points from a risk/reward perspective. That said, all the ideas below are likely contingent on the overall market cooperating. Because if we see a complete breakdown most breakouts will probably fizzle and follow the indexes lower.
But since it pays to be prepared, let’s take a look at some individual stock picks. And after that, I’ll share a few of my favourite trading articles from around the financial web this week.
Trend Following Trade Ideas for September 2015 (Part 5):
As I was saying, with stocks pulling back a little bit lately, there aren’t all that many breakouts to be had. If you’re willing to buy the dip though, there are plenty of ideas to choose from.
And the few leading stocks that are showing relative strength may have the strong support to keep trending if they’ve been able to buck the market trend thus far.
One such example is Nova Measuring Inc (NVMI), which is knocking on the door of a prior resistance level.
Even though NVMI faded a little bit into the weekly close, I think it’s one to consider watching for follow-through next week, especially if the broader market can cooperate. .
Another such name is Nike (NKE). It’s hard to argue with this strong weekly breakout:
And I know it looks like NKE has already moved a lot. So yes, you could try and wait for a pullback. But a lot of the time it’s also been my experience that good stocks keep going up.
With NKE charging higher on the back of strong fundamental results, (as was the case this week), it’s hard to argue the longer-term line of least resistance isn’t higher.
Now if you really don’t like buying stocks that have already broken out, I did promise you there were pullbacks.
Exponent Inc (EXPO) is one that caught my radar because the stock is consolidating near highs, and buying the current pullback with a stop below the recent trading range could be an interesting approach.
The risk is you don’t get the breakout and end up being stopped out and tying up your money for a while. So if that idea scares you, just keep it on your watchlist for a pop to new highs at which point you could try jumping on for a ride.
While we’re on the topic, I think Microsoft is actually flashing a very similar setup that’s worth a look:
It looks like this stock has been consolidating through time. And with another earnings season around the corner, that could be a catalyst to get price moving (hopefully higher!)
Okay, now before I leave you today I want to share a few of my favourite articles I came across this week from the online stock trading community.
Links From Around The Financial Web:
“Well we made it, it’s time for Q4 2019. Time goes by fast. It’s remarkable how each quarter of the last year or so were distinct in price action and sentiment. At the moment the price action as I understand it has hit the brakes.” Hard Examination Of The Last Quarter
“The idea is to follow trends and use an RSI(2) pullback to get a better price entry. We wait for the RSI(2) to turn back up before entering the trade then place a stop loss at the previous swing low.” Testing a Readers RSI Trading Strategy
“Could simply ranking by the highest priced stocks work? It makes some sense. Price going up is what we want. ” The Simplest Momentum Indicator
“Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your problem is not in the math. There is no math to get you out of having to experience uncertainty.” 12 Ed Seykota Quotes on Price Action
I hope you find these interesting! Now before we finish…
I also want to share my existing trend-following trading positions for US-listed stocks with you. So here they are in a FinViz watch list! Take a look if you’re still itching for more potential trade ideas.
They might be of interest because everything is laid out in charts so you can easily see what’s what.
Because actually, there have also been a lot of great trends this week so I’m quite bullish on many of my existing holdings.
I hope seeing my current stock portfolio helps give you more context on how I’m seeing the current market, AND, where I’m placing my bets.
While I’ve obviously shown you some of my favourite picks for the week ahead, I can also help teach you how to fish for your own trading ideas!
Just keep reading.
Learn How to Scan For Breakout Stock Picks:
If you want to learn more about how I find these kind of stock picks, I encourage you to check out my Breakout Stock Blueprint. What’s that, you ask?
Well… it’s a +90-page PDF… packed with everything I know about finding, buying and trading breakout stock picks.
This Blueprint shares the EXACT step-by-step process I use to find and trade stock picks each week (just like the ones above). So…
If you want to see how to find high-potential-momentum stock picks, learn how to let your winners run and be confident about locking in profits, then this Blueprint is for you.