February 2017 Trend Following Trade Ideas:
It’s been another great week for stock market bulls. And with all these breakouts, you’d better believe there are tons of trend following trade ideas popping up on my stock screens. But first…
I have a small administrative note for you… which is…
This will likely be the last blog post of February. I’m sorry! I always post at least once a week… BUT… I’m off to do a few weeks of travelling.
And I’m not planning to bring a computer with me… (crazy, I know).
However… what’s the point of grinding so hard in the markets… if you can’t take some time off to travel the world, lie on tropical beaches and drink in the pleasures of life. You know what I mean?
That said, it’s also a great opportunity for me to eat EVEN MORE of my own cooking… in terms of… having a system for when to sell my stocks (even when away from the market). So I’m definitely walking my talk here.
With that in mind, this will be a VERY thorough update of my existing portfolio positions and new trade ideas. We’ll start with the new stock picks first. Sound good?
New Trend Following Trade Ideas for February 2017:
As I mentioned at the start of this article: markets have been strong. And once again, the S&P-500 SPY ETF hit a brand new all-time high. With this bullish backdrop, there’s plenty of stock picks to choose from.
So let’s get started.
The first chart I want to show you is Primarica Inc (NYSE:PRI). After a couple years of consolidation, shares of PRI have finally been breaking out.
Here’s a long-term weekly chart, and where I would place a stop loss were I to buy today.
I know it can be scary to buy stocks at all-time highs, especially when they’ve already moved so far. But if you manage risk carefully with the right position size and a stop-loss, these kind of trades can be very profitable.
If you’re not feeling that stock pick, another trade idea with a more textbook uptrend is Adobe Inc (NASDAQ:ADBE).
Just look at the slow and steady grind upwards. This is the kind of low-stress stock pick I love to own. Given the fidelity of this uptrend, I’m happy to give the stop-loss a little more wiggle room. Just be sure to adjust your position sizing accordingly.
And finally, now the chart is starting to look like it might agree. See for yourself:
If I were to buy shares of Honeywell here, I’d step-in with a stop-loss order around $15.30 to protect my downside risk. Remember, knowing when to sell your stocks (especially when they go against you) is critical.
Next up I want to show you a chart of NetApp Inc (NASDAQ:NTAP). The stock looks to have put in a massive bottom! And while the uptrend isn’t perfect, it could be just getting started.
Take a look:
Since I’m looking for a quick move higher in NTAP, I would use a tighter stop just under $38. And if you believe in measured moves this thing could just be getting started!
On the other hand, I don’t mind getting stopped-out quickly if it means I can move on to other opportunities. I’m also encouraged because other companies in the NTAP industry (like STX) have similar looking reversal patterns.
Now… I want to try something a little bit different…
I don’t usually talk explicitly about my portfolio. But there are two big reasons I want to share my positions with you today.
First of all, I’m almost fully invested. So while it’s fun to look for new ideas, it’s probably more interesting and transparent to show you how I’m managing my own existing positions.
Second, I sent an email to everybody who’s signed up for free stock picks, and many replied saying they’d be curious to see my positions. So that’s why I want to open up the kimono and show you what’s going on with my personal investing and trading accounts.
Trend Following Portfolio Update For February 2017:
In addition to my existing positions, since I’m going to be offline for a bit, I’ll also show you where my stop losses are. This way you can see how I’m managing these trade ideas in real time.
All my stop losses are set, so it doesn’t’ really matter whether I’m watching my stocks or not.
Plus, since I trade primarily off longer-term weekly charts, I can travel without having to watch the market all day. I love having fun and knowing my money is working for me.
So without further ado, let me show you what I own, in order of biggest position to smallest. I’ll also include where I entered the position and where my stop loss is.
You’ll also see where I recommended these stock picks on this website! Hopefully you have been able to reap some profits as well.
WEED.TO – with the prospect of marijuana legalization in Canada, Canopy Growth Corp has been off to the races. I’m just doing my best to hang on for the ride! I first featured this stock pick in October 2016.
XIU.TO – I don’t typically buy ETFs, but the Canadian stock market as a whole has been acting like a raging bull for the last 14 months. I’m happy to have a piece of this action without the company-specific risks.
MSM – MSC Industrial Direct has been on a tear ever since the Trump administration was elected. That’s why I featured it in November 2016 as a high-potential stock pick.
RY/RY.TO – Royal Bank is another Canadian stock pick that has been rampaging higher as if it were an up-and-coming growth stock. I’ve written about RY numerous times including an analysis on Seeking Alpha, and here in October 2016.
TTC – Toro Corp Inc has been a popular feature on the blog, and for good reason! Just look at the chart below. If you want to learn more about this unique company you may be detailed in my Seeking Alpha analysis.
ACN – Accenture is a well-known global consulting firm. Unfortunately I haven’t had great luck trading it. I got stopped out earlier in the year when I featured it in May 2016. And then it immediately crashed after I re-entered. I’m basically just waiting to get stopped out on this one, but here’s how I’m managing it. You can read more of my analysis on Accenture at Seeking Alpha.
MA – Mastercard is another one that has been slow to get going for me. I bought the stock around the time I recommended it in November 2016. I also analyzed Mastercard on Seeking Alpha. While I’ve since trailed the stop-loss to break even, this position has been a slow mover for me.
NVDA NVDIA has been a great trend following stock pick. My biggest regret was not getting back in sooner after I was originally stopped out. Since then though, NVDIA hasn’t looked back. I’m curious to see if this trend will fizzle out or resume higher. I’ve mentioned NVDA here on the blog in October 2015 and November 2016.
PCLN Priceline has been in my portfolio for a few months now, coinciding with my analysis on Seeking Alpha. But i only featured it here recently in January 2017 once it started moving again. Since then, PCLN has continued higher and I’ve raised my stop accordingly.
OTEX/OTEX.TO Open Text Corporation is a stock that came on my radar last fall. I analyzed it’s competitive advantages and shared some charts here in September 2016. While the stock has slowed down lately, I’ve raised my stop to lock-in profits and am happy to wait and see what happens.
BOJA Bojangles Inc is a relatively new stock pick on my radar. But I was sure to mention it in January when I picked up shares. While BOJA doesn’t have a super clearly defined uptrend, the stock does seem to be carving out a bottom. So I’ve taken a position and will look to add on strength.
ROK Rockwell Automation is another newer stock pick. But it has been off to an explosive stat. Here’s how I’m managing my positions after mentioning it on the blog in November 2016.
TXN Texas Instruments is a stock I’ve been involved with for a few months now (first shown here). I am perennially optimistic on this company but the stock has been relatively slow to get going from the most recent consolidation when I added to my position (here).
ROL Rollins is another new addition to my portfolio. But I have to say, so far it’s off to a good start. Here’s where I originally wrote about it back in October. I should have taken my own advice and got in sooner as ROL sure has been rolling.
TSRA Tesserra Technologies has been stock in a strong uptrend. I wrote about it months ago when I first bought the stock. And since then things have continued to go well. Unfortunately, the trend has slowed down a bit lately and only time will tell whether I get stopped out of TSRA. For now I remain hopeful.
TIH.TO Tormont Industries was a stock that I thought I would get stopped out of. But recently, things have turned around and share prices are pushing new highs. I’ve since been able to raise my stop-loss and hopefully lock-in a profit. Take a look:
AAPL Apple doesn’t need any introduction. And although shares have languished for most of 2015 and 2016, I think things could be changing this year… or at least… that’s what the trend suggests. Here’s how I’ve been managing my AAPL position.
SNI Scripps Network Interactive is an interesting potential investment opportunity, which I analyzed last year on Seeking Alpha. While owning shares was bumpy at first, SNI has continued trending upwards.
JPM Admittedly I bought shares of JP Morgan after they had run up substantially in December 2016. And to be honest, it wasn’t an emotionally easy decision. But luckily I’ve mustered out a profit as shares have consolidated rather tightly. I’m still curious to see how this one pans out.
SHOP/SHOP.TO Shopify has exceeded my wildest trend following expectations so far in 2017. I first featured it in late 2016 and again in January 2017. I’ve since trailed my stop higher and have got to expect this stock to cool off. Nevertheless, I’ll happily continue to wait and see.
MTN is the last stock in my portfolio I want to share with you today. This one has taken a while to get going after I first wrote about it in November 2016. But with the help of a little patience, this investment is starting to pay profits. And the uptrend looks like it could be set to continue.
Now keep in mind…
I also have some smaller positions but the above make up the LARGE majority of my portfolio.
By the way, it’s no coincidence that some of my biggest positions are my biggest winners. That’s because I tend to buy more (or “pyramid”) positions as stocks go in my favour.
Now, I’ll be the first to admit this is emotionally hard to do. It’s scary to buy more when you’re already showing a profit on your position. That’s because there is a very real risk that you will give back all your open profits (and more!)
You also might have noticed…
Most of my open positions are profitable! Of course, it helps that the market has been strong lately. But the other KEY reason 85% of my open positions are winners is because I cut the losers VERY quickly.
For example, I’m honestly eager to get stopped out of ACN so I can put the money to work in more productive names. Seriously! It’s so much more fun to ride trends than pick bottoms.
February Portfolio Update Conclusions:
I hope you enjoyed this portfolio update. I’ve never written a behind-the-scenes post like this before. But if you enjoyed it I’ll definitely think about doing updates like this in future months.
And in the meantime, be sure to follow me on Twitter so you can stay up to date with my on-the-go updates! You can also sign up below to get notified of my future portfolio updates. Sound good?